Sunday, May 3, 2009

The Top Ten Big Demographic Trends in Austin, Texas

Interesting populations trends for Austin Texas provided by the City of Austin website: http://www.ci.austin.tx.us/demographics/

Introduction: Austin is evolving as a city and as an urban area. Its point along a trajectory of growth and demographic change can be located and described by outlining several large-scale phenomena of urbanization. This list of The Top Ten Big Demographic Trends will attempt to answer these questions: Where have we just come from, where are we now, and where are we going as a city? Demographically speaking that is.

The theme of ethnic change and diversification is a common one throughout the Top Ten, and yet each point addressing the issue highlights a particular aspect of ethnic change significant in its own right. In one way or another, the trends discussed below are inherently intertwined with one another—each force exerting its own push or pull on the collective, synergistic direction of the city’s demographic path.

The Top Ten:

Number One: No majority. The City of Austin has now crossed the threshold of becoming a Majority-Minority city. Put another way, no ethnic or demographic group exists as a majority of the city’s population. The city’s Anglo share of total population has dropped below 50% (which probably occurred sometime during 2005) and will stay there for the foreseeable future. Please see graph..

It’s not that there hasn’t been absolute growth in the total number of Anglo households in Austin but rather it’s because the growth of other ethnic groups has outpaced the growth of Anglo households. For example, the growth rate of Latino and Asian households far exceeds the growth of Anglo households in Austin.

Number Two: Decreasing families-with-children share in the urban core. The share of all households within the city’s urban core made-up of families-with-children is slowly declining. In 1970, the urban core’s families-with-children share was just above 32%, Census 2000 puts the figure at not quite 14%. Moreover, with only a few neighborhood exceptions, the urban core is also becoming almost devoid of married-with-children households, please see map.

Citywide, the trends have been similar in that the overall number of families-with-children has increased while the share of total households from families-with-children has decreased. This relative loss of families-with-children households has significant implications for the city’s several school districts, but AISD will feel the greatest brunt of the effect.

Here’s the rub: the absolute number of children in the city is going up, while their share of total population is declining. This paradox is further exacerbated by the fact that in absolute terms the demand for services will increase as the share of families that remain within the city will become, in relative terms at least, increasingly poor because of who’s left and who’s moving in. School systems and health care providers will have a hard time managing the increasing absolute need in light of this loss in share.

Although there will continue to be pockets and neighborhoods with high concentrations of affluent families in Austin, it has been middle class families that are becoming increasingly less common within the urban core. Without a sizable share of middle class families to stabilize the urban core, working class families suffer because the rung above them on the socio-economic ladder has been removed, making it more difficult for them to achieve upward social mobility.

Number Three: African American share on the wane. The city’s African American share of total population will more than likely continue its shallow slide even as the absolute number of African Americans in the city continues to increase. The import of this decrease in share should not be underestimated as just a few decades ago African Americans made-up around 15% of the city’s population and just a few decades from now African Americans could represent a mere 5% of the city’s population and constitute the smallest minority group in the city.

Number Four: Hispanic share of total population…will it ever surpass the Anglo share? Maybe not, but they’ll be close to each other in a short 25 years. You just can’t say enough about how strong Hispanic growth has been. The city’s Hispanic share in 1990 was under 23%, the Census 2000 figure was almost 31%, and this share of total is probably around 35% today.

Importantly, the city’s stream of incoming Hispanic households is socio-economically diverse. Middle-class Hispanic households have migrated to Austin from other parts of the state and the country for high-tech and trade sector jobs while international immigrant Hispanic and Latino households have come here for construction and service sector jobs. Among other effects on the total population, the huge influx of Hispanic families into Austin, with higher-than-average household sizes and more children per household, has acted to dampen the increase in the city’s median age, keeping Austin one of the youngest cities in the country. Moreover, were it not for Hispanic families moving into the urban core, the city’s falling families-with-children share would have had a much steeper descent.

Number Five: Asian share skyrocketing. The Asian share of total population in Austin almost doubled during the nineties, leaping from 3.3% in 1990 to almost 5% by 2000 and stands somewhere near the 6.5% mark today. Like their Hispanic counterparts, the incoming Asians to Austin during the past 15 years are a much more diverse sub-population than what existed in Austin in the past. For example, thirty years ago, if you were Asian and in Austin, chances are you were Chinese and somehow associated with the University of Texas. Today, Austin hosts an Asian population that spans the socioeconomic spectrum and is sourced by several countries of origin, with India, Vietnam and China being the largest contributors, please see graph.

Austin has become a destination, for example, for Vietnamese households flowing out of metropolitan Houston. This highly entrepreneurial population has opened new businesses, purchased restaurants, made loans available to its network and acquired real estate. Emerging clusters of Vietnamese households are evident in several northeast Austin neighborhoods. Please see map.

Amazingly, by the middle of the next decade, the number of Asians in Austin will more than likely exceed the number of African Americans. While the general population of Austin doubles every 20 to 25 years, the number of Asians in Austin is doubling every ten years.

Number Six: Geography of African Americans, dispersion and flight to the suburbs. The critical mass and historical heavy concentration of African American households in east Austin began eroding during the 1980s, and by the mid-1990s, had really begun to break apart. Please see map.

Over the past 25 years, middle-class African American households have left east Austin for the suburbs and other parts of Austin, please see map. The level of residential segregation for African Americans has dropped significantly as their level of spatial concentration has diminished. Many community leaders talk today of how many of these families are still returning to churches in east Austin on Sunday morning. However, many of these same community leaders fear that the newly-suburban African American population will eventual build suburban churches closer to home, leaving the original houses of worship somewhat stranded. The potential impact of the loss of these churches and their community outreach and community care programs on the African American households left in east Austin could be devastating.

Number Seven: Geography of Hispanics, intensifying urban barrios along with movement into rural areas. Maps of Hispanic household concentrations from Census 2000 reveal the emergence of three overwhelmingly Hispanic population centers in Austin: lower east Austin (which also serves as the political bedrock of Austin’s Hispanic community), greater Dove Springs, and the St. Johns area. Dove Springs shifted from being about 45% Hispanic in 1990 to almost 80% by 2000. St. Johns went from being 35% to 70%--this radical transition is clearly evident on the streets of St. Johns, a neighborhood that once hosted one of Austin’s oldest African American communities. Please see map.

The import of this trend is this: at the same time that ethnic minority populations are moving into the middle-class and are more capable than ever to live anywhere they choose, there are parts of the city where ethnic concentration is greatly increasing. However, it is lower-income minority households that are most likely to participate in the clustering phenomenon.

Number Eight: An increasingly sharp edge of affluence. Maps of Median Family Income from Census 2000 show an increasingly hard edge between affluent central Texas and less-than-affluent parts of the urban region. While some forms of residential segregation have decreased markedly over the past few decades in Austin, the degree of socio-economic spatial separation has steeply increased. The center of wealth in Austin has slowly migrated into the hills west of the city. Please see Median Family Income maps one, two, and three in sequence to get a feel for just how much of an island of affluence exists in greater Austin.

This trend of wealth-creep out of the City creates an even greater burden for citizens funding services and facilities that are used and enjoyed by individuals from across the region.

Austin is becoming a more divided city, divided not just in terms of income but also in terms of cultural attributes, linguistic characteristics and political persuasions. For example, precinct-level results from the 2004 Presidential election reveal a deep cleavage within the Austin urban area in terms of the residential location of Republicans (map) and Democrats (map) and the dividing line between Red and Blue Austin that roughly follows MoPac from south to north, illuminating the strong east to west political spatial dichotomy (map).

Number Nine: Regional indigent health care burden. During the foreseeable future, the regional indigent health care burden will continue to grow and the city’s disproportionate shouldering of the cost will increase as well.

The creation of the Travis County Hospital District in 2004 was a giant step toward leveling the uneven burden of indigent health care across the Austin region, and yet, there was an obvious spatial pattern of who supported the creation of the district and who did not, as illustrated by the precinct-level results of that vote.

Number Ten: Intensifying urban sprawl. The Austin region will continue to experience intense urban sprawl, please see map. Although there is an enormous amount of residential development currently underway within the urban core and in downtown Austin, the thousands of new units being created there will be only a drop in the regional bucket of total residential units created. There simply are very few land availability constraints in the territory surrounding Austin.

And yet this is not to say that the positive effects of new urbanism and Smart Growth policies won’t be felt inside the city, it is rather to say that even with the success of the many enlightened urbanizing efforts currently afoot in Austin, urban sprawl and its footprint will have an enduring presence in central Texas.

Conclusion: Austin is a magical place, an attractive place, attractive not only in terms of natural beauty but also in terms of its gravitational pull for people.

Austin draws its special character from its physical setting along the Balcones Escarpment, a city wedged between coastal plain and dramatic cliffs, canyons and juniper carpeted rolling hills; it sits on the edge of the Chihuahuan desert existing as a physical and cultural oasis where talented, entrepenurial, hard working people are drawn from all over the world.

Austin’s quality of life has become its biggest economic development engine, and the city’s diverse demographic structure serves to support and enrich its quality of life.

Ryan Robinson
City Demographer
City of Austin

Investing in Austin Real Estate

Here is a recent interesting article dicussing the large rental base in Austin vs. Homeownership. According to the map showing which areas have the most renters, it is largly due to the University of Texas and the fact that the average age in Austin is very young compared to other large cities.

If you are looking to purchase a rental property in Austin, Texas, call me at 512.657.4455. There are a lot of highly desireable areas to choose from and it is a great time to buy!

MHN Special: Austin Market Report with Nielsen-Claritas Research Published: April 15, 2009
By Erika Schnitzer, Associate Editor

Austin, Texas—known for its live music scene and enormous university—is a relatively young city, which makes it an ideal rental market. Ranked by Money magazine as the No. 2 Best Place to Live in 2006, Austin has continued to experience employment growth, with its government base helping to minimize the downturn, according to David Ward, executive vice president, regional investment director Southwest region for Post Properties Inc.Because of its relatively young demographic, Austin has “historically [had] a higher rental demographic versus home ownership,” asserts Ward. While the gap between renting and home ownership has narrowed in recent months, Ward predicts that it will once again become defined as home ownership rates return to normal and rental occupancies pick up.Below is the generational breakdown throughout the United States, compared with that of Austin. According to Nielsen Claritas' figures, 25.5 percent of the U.S. population is comprised of "Authority Figures," those born in or before 1945. The same group makes up a smaller population in Austin—16 percent. Looking at the "Social Netizens," those born between 1986 and 1994 and the youngest generation shown in the chart, we see that while the group comprises only 1.7 percent of the nation's population, Austin's "Social Netizens" group comprises 3 percent of the city's CBSA (Cored-Based Statistical Area).By comparing the generations on either end of the spectrum, we see that Austin's population is, in general, much younger than that of the nation as whole. Based on this information, we can infer that Austin would tend to be a higher rental city, as it is usually the younger demographics who rent—as opposed to own—their homes.According to Mark Johnson, associate at Colliers International’s Multifamily Advisory Group International, of all the cities in Texas, Austin saw the largest drop—410 basis points—in year-over-year occupancy, from January 2008 to January 2009. One year ago, Austin had the highest occupancy rates of any city in Texas. Despite this drop, occupancy remains at 88.8 percent, higher here than in most other Texas markets and on par with Dallas. In addition, because of the high home prices, the shadow market has not had too much of an effect on the city.Rent-wise, all Texas markets experienced some growth, before concessions, reports Johnson. Austin, always with the highest rents in the state, was up 4.4 percent year-over-year, from $833 to $870. While it lagged behind Houston in terms of growth, Austin remains at the top of the market in terms of dollar amount.Given the current state of the economy, it is no wonder that developers are at the same time both hesitant and eager to explore new markets. Careful consideration of market demographics is absolutely critical at any point in time, but even more so in these troubled economic times, notes Terry Munoz, vice president and practice leader of the real estate, retail and restaurant industries for Nielsen Claritas, a national marketing information source that, like MHN, is part of The Nielsen Co.“We need to move from the ‘if you build it, they will come’ [mentality] to fact-based decision-making,” asserts Munoz. “In a recession lenders require an even higher level of due diligence from developers. And unless developers are asking how to best market their products now, ROI and retention will fall by the wayside."What do Austin renters want? According to Ward, the typical Austin renter is similar in demographic to the general renter pool—a young professional, 25- to 45-year-old, who is well-educated and employed in either the tech or government sector Most renters, whether singles or couples, do not have children. Click
here for a list of the top 10 socio-economic segments in Austin's CBSA (Core-Based Statistical Area), along with a description of each.So, what does the Austin renter look for in a community? “In urban markets, we reach a pretty high rental demographic, so we provide smaller unit sizes but substantial amenities,” says Ward. Because Austin has the highest home prices in Texas, rentals also tend to be higher-priced, resulting in a certain expectation of quality in a residence. Consequently, rents at Class A properties increased 2 percent at the end of the fourth quarter 2008, to $1,017 per month, while Class B and C properties grew only 1 percent during the same time period, to $710 per month, reports Johnson.While the typical Austin renter wants to live in a nice community, says Ward, from an income standpoint they also need to look at smaller square footages. Thus, Post’s Austin properties provide an average of 850 sq. ft. of living space. However, Ward notes that this smaller-than-average living space demands a high-quality amenity package. “When we look at underwriting our transactions, we try to price in value of upgraded amenities on return and make sure what we incorporate there is a demand for and price to pay to enhance NOI,” he says.Because of this expectation, Ward says that Post tends to “deck out units” so residents feel they are getting “the bang for the buck.” Community amenities typically include patios, pools, large fitness areas, Internet cafes and community rooms. High-density products are often built around a professionally landscaped courtyard, and Ward notes that urban vegetable gardens are gaining in popularity. Because much of Austin’s demographics are somehow related to the University—whether they are faculty or past or present students—the demand in this area is the city’s highest, particularly within a two- to five-mile radius, says Johnson.Opportunities for investment Ward remains optimistic about Austin, predicting that Texas will fare better than most other states across the country and that Austin will be similar to Houston in its apartment fundamentals. He remains positive, saying that he would rank it among some of the highest cities, despite “some softness because of the amount of product on the market.” He believes that this softness will be relatively short-lived, however.Johnson believes that the stick-built, four-story projects with concrete and steel parking garages will be the first projects to be built and will be the ones performing the best once the economy turns around. He asserts that, compared with other products on the market—particularly the high-rise projects that developers had built with a condo exit strategy in mind and the garden apartments, for which there is not enough land—the more traditional projects will be reasonably priced. “Location is key in a market like Austin,” notes Ward. Thus, the best bets are the areas around the University, as demand there is high. Because the CBD has historically been the most desirable area for renters and has some of the highest rent growth, it also has a high barrier to entry. But if you can get in to the market, a five-mile ring around the CBD is the best place to concentrate, according to Ward.Click here to see where residents are renting in Austin's CBSA.The Austonian, a 56-story, 178-unit high-rise residential and retail project designed by Ziegler Cooper Architects for Benchmark Development and Second Congress Ltd., will be the tallest building in Austin, as well as the tallest residential building west of the Mississippi. The vision for a high-density residential luxury property in Austin was reinforced by the initiatives of the City of Austin, and specifically, Mayor Will Wynn. City leaders set the goal of adding 25,000 new residents to downtown Austin over a 10-year period.A participant in the City of Austin's Green Building Program, the Austonian will feature occupancy sensors and dimming ballasts in common areas; low-VOC adhesives, sealants, paints and coatings; non-toxic pest management and cleaning products; a rainwater collection system; special coated and insulated glass for year-round energy savings, and more. (Click here to see a SLIDESHOW depicting this green condo's model residences, sky lounge, lobby and more.)“I think our focus on the urban locations probably gives us the most stability, long-term,” Ward says. “You don’t have lows as low, and highs are pretty good. Location is key in a market like Austin.” As Munoz notes, “Austin is a microcosm of redevelopment and re-gentrification.” To that end, trends in the city include mixed-use and transit-oriented development, although the experts have different opinions about whether they are ideal investment opportunities. While the consensus seems to be that mixed-use developments are, in fact, a trend because they appeal to both young demographics as well as some of the older, active adult renters. Johnson does not believe there is enough traffic to draw retailers to lease space in the projects. Consequently, he says, neighborhood-focused retail is more common than anything else in these project types.Furthermore, “a lot of mixed-use was driven by municipalities,” Johnson notes. He warns that this is not necessarily a good thing, as it can force developers to lose efficiencies. The market has to dictate that there is a need for multiple products within it, says Munoz “It’s not one strategy fits all. Austin is a vibrant young marketplace but has older demographics as well.”With the completion of its first rail line—which comprises five or six train stations—Ward notes that the trend of transit-oriented development is here to stay. “As rail line grows in Austin there will be more development associated with those stations,” he predicts. And perhaps renters will be more inclined to venture a few miles further away from the University and CBD.

* Nielsen Claritas is a marketing information resources company dedicated to helping companies engaged in consumer and business-to-business marketing. It is dedicated to maximizing clients' profitability with targeted and measurable marketing programs and enterprise-wide technology solutions. Nielsen Claritas uses its PRIZM segmentation system to study 66 socio-economic demographics, including groups such as "Young Digerati," "Brite Lites," "L'il City," "Bohemian Mix" and "Gray Power."

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Luxury Institute Survey: High Net-Worth Consumers Rank the "Best of the Best" Luxury Home Appliances and Bathroom Fixtures Brands

The Luxury Institute reported today the top-rated luxury Home Appliances and luxury Bathroom Fixtures categories in the 2009 Luxury Brand Status Index (LBSI) survey, which identifies the top brands that exhibit true luxury in these two essential living categories based solely on the unbiased ratings of wealthy consumers.
Which luxury home appliances brands deliver the best combination of quality, exclusivity, customer experience and peer prestige? High net-worth consumers rated Wolf, Viking and Sub-Zero the "Best of the Best" among the 20 brands that were rated. In the bath fixtures category, Hansgrohe, Showhouse by Moen and Franke were rated the top three among 16 brands.
The LBSI asks high net-worth consumers to rate luxury brands by category across four equally weighted components: Consistently Superior Quality, Uniqueness and Exclusivity, Making the Customer Feel Special across the entire experience and Being Consumed by People Who Are Admired and Respected.
The "Best of the Best" are: (LBSI score out of 10)
-- Home Appliances
- Wolf-7.86
- Viking-7.66
- Sub-Zero-7.64
-- Bathroom Fixtures
- Hansgrohe-7.77
- Showhouse by Moen-7.35
- Franke-7.31
"As high net-worth consumers demand maximum value for the luxury they consume, our independent and objective ratings are the only source that is based solely on the voice of high net-worth consumers, using unbiased panels and independent analytical firms to run and tabulate the results. These top-rated brands deliver luxury, and consumers appreciate it," said Milton Pedraza, CEO of the Luxury Institute.
"Luxury requires a reinvention based on radical innovation of design, quality, craftsmanship and especially service, all delivered to a client who demands to know why he, or she, is paying a significant premium for commoditized goods and services. Luxury needs to reinvent the values that drive optimal customer experience to a new level of performance that high net-worth consumers will rate as true luxury. The reality is that, despite what pundits say, the success rules of luxury will soon be re-written by the radically creative luxury innovators, and the winners will be determined only by unbiased consumer ratings, not luxury pundits."
The proprietary Luxury Brand Status Index (LBSI) survey is the only unbiased measure of the prestige of leading brands among wealthy Americans. A national sample of 1,208 wealthy American consumers, with an average income of $345,000 and average net-worth of $3.2 million, was surveyed online. Survey results are weighted to match demographic and net-worth profiles of the same audience according to the latest Survey of Consumer Finances from The Federal Reserve.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Austin Economic Forecast for 2009/2010

The much anticipated Angelou Economics Austin Economic Forecast was held in April. Everyone in Austin looks forward to this event and it is a great to to know how well Austin really is doing relative to other parts of the country. While our real estate market has slowed down compared to last year and our unemployement has risen, job growth remains slightly positive and will continue to improve in 2010. All in all, Austin is fairing pretty well.

Check out this link to the presentation to see for yourself how great it is to live in Austin Texas!

http://www.angeloueconomics.com/news_presentations.html